What is Startup Success really?

Why 15 startups? Can't you succeed at anything?

Great insight often comes from great guidance. One of my newer mentors (who didn't know much of my history) asked this question of me yesterday. 

Not because he was trying to be rude or critical, but because he recognised that anyone from outside of the startup space would genuinely ask that question. And it's a valid one. 

What do you call a success?

Is it a startup that went on to make it's founders millionaires? 

And what is failure?

Is it a failure to properly execute a strategy? To launch prematurely?

Or is it an idea that has inherenent weakness (as most do) that cant easily be overcome?

Or perhaps its an interesting idea, that you successfully launched but later ran out of resources (team/money/ execution) for? 

Or hits a unanswerable questions or barriers (such as scalability/ licencing/ politics/ market) ?

Or a launched business that you later closed because there was substantial risk (eg of itself of being disrupted)?  

Or perhaps you didn't know/ learn/ do / listen enough?

Or one of a hundred other reasons.

These are interesting questions, at least to me, and perhaps to a few other entrepreneurs. 

What I do know, is that the average number of projects that an entrepreneur has attempted before reaching substantial success (what ever that is) as a Founder (as opposed to an investor) appears to be between 8-14, according to the wise advice of 2 of my great mentors. 

Why is that important?

Because for every 1000 entrepreneurs who start the race, only a few will ever make it to this mythical finishing line (or perhaps its just a new starting line). 

Let me expand. A recent report by PWC, analysed the dropout rates of failed startups in Australia as being about 60%, which means that founder retry rates are 40%.

For example, in any one year if you had a cohort of 1000 aspiring entrepreneurs that had failed on their 1st attempt, 600 would leave, and 400 would retry. 

(In the absence of any data about the return rates of subsequent founders, we can only use that continuing ratio). 

So of the 400 that retry, (and because most of these will fail), only about 160 of these will go on to try a third time, and 64 a fourth, 25 a fifth. 

By the end of the time series that marks the 6th attempt, from the original cohort of 1000, we would have a very interesting statistic.

Only a handful of entrepreneurs will have successes, and an equivalent handful number will have achieved failure, both over approximately the same time scale. 

Both will have learned similar things, such as how to build & resource teams, overcome adversity, build connections, obtain great guidance, craft and deliver a compelling story, and engage an audience. 

Some will say that the main difference will likely only be the size of their wallets. 

However, one group will be disproportionately stronger in another area.

You can't buy it, borrow it, or lease it (though some might try to fake it). 

And once you have it, it can't be take from you. 

Character. 

Character comes not from money - it comes from facing & overcoming adversity. 

It is what defines, and refines you. It says what you will, or won't stand for. 

Character forces you to search your soul for who you really are. 

Character comes from standing against the small voice in your mind that tells you to take the 'easy' shortcut. 

Character comes from pushing on, when all about you have fallen, or given up, or taken the easy path.  

Character tells you get up again after you fall down. 

Character will cause others to rally around you when you fall, and reach out to you, to help you to your feet again

Character, is the compelling and endearing qualities of your integrity, values and standards, all wrapped up. 

Success is Character.